A Deceptive 3-1. Are the Steelers actually any good?

After 4 weeks of football the Steelers find themselves 3-1 headed home from Dublin. To the surprise of many, including Dan Orlovsky who predicted an 0-6 start for Pittsburgh, the Steelers are atop the AFC North and 2nd in the AFC heading into their bye week. 

All signs point to the Steelers off season investments paying off, at least on paper. The Steelers have had 5+ sacks in the last two games as well as multi turnover performances from the defense over the last two weeks. Rodgers is 3rd in the NFL passing touchdowns with 8 and DK Metcalf had his best game as a Steeler Sunday morning. 

On paper, the Steelers are going to make a playoff push and finally break the first round loss curse. However,  paper doesn’t play. One of the most tired narratives in football media is labeling teams “the best 0-4 team” or “the worst 4-1 team in football” and I won’t use those cliches here. At some point, your record is your record. And for better or worse the Steelers are 3-1 

However, despite that record, the Steelers are a bad football team. Objectively. It’s hard to watch them play football and believe they have any real shot at a Super Bowl, and really any shot at winning a single playoff game. 

The Steelers 3 wins have come in one score games to the 0-3 Jets, the 1-2 Patriots with a 2nd year QB, and the Vikings on their back up QB. The Steelers “winning ugly” ideal is in full force over the first four weeks, but it’s beginning to wear thin. It's not only frustrating to watch but more importantly, it’s not sustainable. It’s a football mindset left over from a bygone era. 

The Steelers are trying to win games as if they are stuck in the 70s. Conservative offensive game plans, playing the field position game, and trusting your defense.  That simply, won’t work playing better competition. The Steelers don’t lack talent. The issue with this team is coaching and philosophy. 

The evidence that the Steelers are a poorly coached team is all over the field. At least every other series defenders are pointing at one another after a pass catcher is left alone and there’s no Steeler within 10 yards of him. Then there is Kaleb Johnson not knowing the kick off rules. It’s inexcusable to have a guy out there who simply does not know the rules. And that’s on the coaches. On defense all 4 opponents have run the ball directly to the left side of the line of scrimmage and the Steelers have made no adjustments. 

Giving up 32 to a revamped Jets offense and 375 yards passing to Carson Wentz as a back up is nothing but scheme and coaching when you have that level of defensive talent. Especially when in preseason, the conversation was this defense was the second coming of the ‘85 Bears.

In terms of culture, the Steelers are leaning on an aged philosophy and it has to change. Sunday morning the Steelers shifted into neutral after taking a two score lead. The aggression and downfield passing that was on display in the first portion of the game vanished as they moved almost exclusively to the run game. On defense, they stopped sending pressure and sank into zone coverage. 

The Steelers shifted into lead protection mode and out of attack mode. The most egregious decisions came in the fourth quarter. On 4th and goal the Steelers chose to go for it from inside the 10 and instead of being aggressive and giving DK Metcalf or Darnell Washington a shot to use their freakish ability to make a play, they went conservative and ran the ball.

It wasn’t an effort to score but an effort just to take more time off the clock. The most damning choice came with roughly 2 minutes to go when with 2 minutes to go on 4th and 1, the Steelers took a delay of game and then chose to punt. To make matters worse the execution of the punt was terrible, with Waitman sending it out of the back of the endzone giving the Vikings the ball at the 25 yards line. Even Greg Olson couldn’t believe the decision by Tomlin. Not only do you decide to punt, you spot the Vikings a free 25. 

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, it looked like Tomlin was going out of his way, to make it a one score game. It’s one thing to have faith in your team in one score situations but to almost guide the game that direction is infuriating. 

What’s more, the Steelers are not going to beat any teams of note with that philosophy. The Steelers have at least 5 games where this philosophy is going to back fire, and bad, potentially 7 games. The 5 guarantees are the Packers, Chargers, Bills, the first match up with the Ravens, and the Lions. They also have to face the Colts who are over-playing their projection, and unless Daniel Jones comes back to earth, that’s a potential 6th game, and with the Ravens having early season struggles, there is no guarantee the final regular season game the Ravens will see them resting starters.

All 7 of those games could be losses, I can guarantee that the Steelers will drop 4 of them. They will not beat the Packers, Bills, Lions, or Chargers, and it won’t be particularly close. The Steelers are simply going to get out-coached mostly because all of these teams have modern NFL philosophies. They are aggressive and creative on both sides of the ball. 

The Steelers simply aren’t. You know what you’re gonna get from Pittsburgh it’s never going to change. What does this all mean? We are in for more of the same. It’s like watching reruns of a movie you’re starting to hate. The Steelers MIGHT win 11 games but most likely they will back door their way into the playoffs and get skull drug in the playoffs. 

As Big Ben aged Tomlin found ways to win with an old Ben and QBs like Duck Hodges, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. Now they have Rodgers, and they are still playing like they are protecting a bad QB. When Tomlin found out he COULD win with bad QBs, he decided that was how he HAD to win. 

Now the Steelers are stuck, and they aren’t going to be able to beat good teams and they certainly won’t be real contenders. The way they play football feels like an old car that you have been able to keep running longer than you should have, but eventually the wheels come off. It feels like it’s time for the wheels to come off for this version of the Steelers. 

The Steelers have officially set themselves AT LEAST another year behind in terms of finding a franchise quarterback, despite drafting Will Howard. Rodgers does have a lot left as a passer but in reality his success as the Steelers QB is going to be a zero sum. They are in “win now” mode when they simply are not a Super Bowl team. That’s the truth. They aren’t coached well enough and are not disciplined enough, and they aren’t creative enough. 

They are going to limp to above .500 simply because that’s what they do, and they might even win a playoff game, but where does that leave them? Again needing another QB, and too low in the draft to take one in the first round. I’m not an avid supporter of tanking but the Steelers simply cannot keep swinging at QBs past their prime. They need to see what Will Howard can be, and if he can’t win; they need to take a swing at the upcoming class and see if they can find a difference maker. 

What’s more, they simply cannot play the style of football they currently do. It’s the definition of insanity. I have never bought into the “fire Tomlin” narrative, but everything comes to a natural end, it feels like we have reached that point with Tomlin. He has done great things for Pittsburgh, he has won a Super Bowl, and will surely be a first ballot hall of famer, but it’s time for a change.

To use a Tomlinsm, “what made you viable in the past won’t make you viable going forward” and that’s true for Tomlin himself. His resistance to change his philosophy, his decision making, his hesitation to move on from bad assistants,and to be quite frank keeping Tyrel Austin over Brian Flores as DC, all build to the idea that it’s time to move on. 

It’s hard to say who would take over the helm of this team but it has to be a creative offensive mind who hires an elite defensive staff, an offensive line coach, and who is willing to change the status quo for this team. Don’t let the 3-1 record fool you, the Steelers are really not that good, and they are due for change.